How far and how fast jurisdictional REDD+ scales up depends on sustaining the cycle from emission reductions, to verified results, to payments and further investment.
As countries complete their first REDD+ results-based finance rounds, they strengthen their own future climate mitigation efforts and pave the way for others to follow suit.
Jurisdictional REDD+ is delivering results and gaining momentum. Between July 2025 and June 2026, at least US$473 million was paid for results from at least 11 jurisdictions, covering some 86 million tonnes of verified emission reductions, according to the Forest & Climate Leaders’ Partnership (FCLP).
Payments are now flowing to pioneering REDD+ countries, and more countries are lining up results behind them. The next stretch is to close the first cycles: from verified results to finance and benefits reaching countries, communities and the people who protect forests; and ultimately, from those payments to the policies, investments and economic incentives that can sustain results over time. Standards are still evolving, verification takes time and resources, and contracts are detailed. As delegates gather in Antalya for COP31 from 9 to 20 November, the forest story worth telling is that this works, and that partners are working together to accelerate the last mile to issuance and payment, and complete these virtuous cycles of reinvestment in lasting climate impact.
“We are entering a new phase: from proof of concept to proof of scale. This is a significant milestone after years of building the foundations for REDD+,” says Mario Boccucci, Head of the UN-REDD Secretariat. “Countries are delivering results, and finance is beginning to flow. This opens new possibilities for collaboration among countries, investors and other stakeholders to accelerate finance for communities delivering forest solutions. The opportunity is real, and momentum is growing to turn the tide on deforestation together.”
Signed, verified, paid
Costa Rica has had 1.1 million credits issued, bought by at least ten companies alongside sovereign funders, and in June 2026 became the first country to receive ART-TREES credits for removals. Japan Airlines and All Nippon Airways became the first airlines to publicly retire Guyana’s jurisdictional credits against their CORSIA obligations.
The progress now spans regions. On 23 January 2026, Nepal became the first country in Asia to sign an Emission Reductions Purchase Agreement (ERPA) with the LEAF Coalition, for up to 4 million tonnes worth up to US$55 million, with a draft benefit-sharing plan that would send at least 80 percent of proceeds to local implementers, including community forest user groups and Indigenous Peoples. Bhutan has had its registration and monitoring reports approved by ART, Papua New Guinea’s registration document has been approved, and three Mexican states, Jalisco, Quintana Roo and Yucatán, have submitted concept notes to ART.
Public finance is paying out too. In October 2025, the Green Climate Fund approved US$31 million for Uganda, the first REDD+ results-based payment for an African country and for a Least Developed Country, rewarding more than 8 million tonnes of verified reductions. In October 2026, the GCF approved US$85.3 million for Mexico for more than 10 million tonnes of emission reductions achieved in 2018–2019, to be reinvested in forest conservation and sustainable livestock management. It is the first project approved under the GCF’s new policy for results-based payments.
The road to payment
Countries tend to face similar challenges on the way to payment. The first is incentives: in many places the opportunity cost of keeping forests standing can exceed current prices, upfront investment is still scarce, and programmes work to meet both a market standard and the conditions of each ERPA.
Then there are transaction costs. Standards continue to evolve as the market matures, and countries benefit most when short-term technical assistance is matched by long-term national capacity. Verification involves significant costs and procurement steps, and demand for qualified verification bodies is growing. ERPAs are detailed contracts, and forest countries are better placed to negotiate them with dedicated legal support. Planning for verification costs is now part of UN-REDD’s work with countries.
Each of these can be addressed, and the solutions are practical: more stable standards, support for verification costs, legal support for ERPA negotiations, and some finance up front against future results. Tackled together, they would help results reach payment sooner.
But a payment is not the end of the road. A jurisdiction can receive one and still face the drivers of deforestation, including economic pressures that leave people on the ground with few alternatives. Completing the cycle means using payments strategically, alongside public and private investment, to strengthen the policies, institutions, livelihoods and economic incentives that made the emission reductions possible in the first place.
Used this way, results-based finance can reinforce transformative policies and investments across land-use sectors and shift the needle, making standing forests a durable economic and development asset for years to come. That means connecting payments with financing that expands opportunities for small-scale farmers, Indigenous Peoples, local communities and other forest-dependent people and shifts agrifood systems and land use onto sustainable pathways, so deforestation does not return when a payment cycle ends.
The opportunity is large. UNEP estimates forest finance needs to rise from US$84 billion in 2023 to US$300 billion a year by 2030, and only about 9 percent of today’s forest finance is private, which leaves ample room for buyers and investors. The Tropical Forest Forever Facility, bilateral deals and the bioeconomy all have a part to play. Results-based REDD+ is already paying out, which makes it a ready channel for more.
UN-REDD’s contribution
Since its launch in 2008, UN-REDD, the joint programme of FAO, UNDP and UNEP, has supported countries through the ‘readiness’ work behind these payments: REDD+ strategies, national forest monitoring, reference levels and safeguards.
The Programme has worked with country stakeholders and international partners at every step from readiness to results-based payments, including helping all countries that have received GCF REDD+ payments to date meet the requirements, from Argentina to Uganda. UN-REDD now supports more than 20 countries at different stages of access to high-integrity carbon markets, from registration to verification.
Through the ‘Forests Can’t Wait’ campaign, UN-REDD is bringing forest countries, buyers, standards bodies, verifiers, and Indigenous Peoples and local communities to the same table to work through each bottleneck, from COP31 in Antalya to COP32. Increasingly, its role is to help countries use the wider REDD+ architecture to sustain results: strengthening policies and institutions, addressing deforestation drivers, and supporting equitable benefit sharing.
From Antalya to COP32
Deforestation has slowed, yet the world still loses close to 11 million hectares of forest a year, about 21 hectares a minute, according to FAO.
Antalya is an opportunity to build on the past year’s momentum. Between COP31 and COP32, the aim is to issue and pay for more results, bring more countries into ERPAs, and complete transactions faster than ever. But success will ultimately be measured by what happens beyond the transaction: whether finance helps countries sustain emission reductions, strengthen livelihoods and jurisdictional economies, transform the land-use incentives that drive deforestation, and make keeping forests standing the durable economic choice.
Authors;
- Serena Fortuna (FAO)
- Steven Swan (UNEP)
- Kimberly Todd (UNDP)
- Jose Carlos Fernandez Ugalde (FAO)
- John Narayan Parajuli (UNEP)
