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Baseline Scenario

Definition

In seeking to measure whether greenhouse gases have increased or decreased, it is necessary to have a known previously emitted amount (often connected to a baseline date or year), against which to make a comparison over time. This is often referred to as the "baseline scenario" or "baseline", i.e. expected emissions if the emission reduction activities were not implemented. In the case of REDD, the main options are historical baselines (average emissions during a past period), modeled baselines (spatially explicit - e.g., land use models - or non-spatially explicit process models - e.g., econometric models), and negotiated baselines.

Source

"Glossary", Ecosecurities Limited. "Challenges for a business case for high-biodiversity REDD Projects and Schemes."- A Report for the Secretariat of the CBD, February 2009, Version1.2, "Glossary and Abbreviations", Barnsley, Ingrid, United Nations University Institute of Advanced Studies (UNU-IAS) 2009, "UNU-IAS Guide, Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation in Developing Countries (REDD): A Guide for Indigenous Peoples." January 2009.

Alternative definition

Baseline is a term used frequently in REDD discussion which encompasses a variety of different meanings. Most commonly it is used to mean the land use and/or emissions profile for an area prior to REDD+ intervention, which serves as a benchmark to measure the impact of future actions. See also "reference emissions levels".